Opening the research record…
2026 · one exploratory slate
Settle the record. Question the reasoning. Build the next test.
The initial Forecast Book is an exploratory pilot undergoing review. Its numerical rules were not extensively calibrated. These results establish neither profitability nor model failure, calibration or statistical significance.
Two passes are excluded from wagers and units, included in margin accuracy. The personal FSU push is not an official wager.
New research · partial evidence
Retrospective baseline comparisons, dated quarterback evidence, and a registered prospective pilot carrying both methods forward. Research forecasts remain separate from official betting results.
Scores list away–home using the frozen bookkeeping convention. Every game ended in regulation. Error = actual home margin − fair home margin.
| Matchup | Projected | Final | Fair home | Actual home | Error / absolute | Official decision | Grade / net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado at Georgia Tech | 20–31 | 14–13 | +11.5 | -1 | -12.5 / 12.5 | Lean Lean: Georgia Tech -6.5 Risk 0.55u · win 0.5u | LOSS -0.55u |
| Miami at Stanford | 31–20 | 45–6 | -11.5 | -39 | -27.5 / 27.5 | Play Play: Stanford +24.5 Risk 1.1u · win 1u | LOSS -1.10u |
| Baylor vs Auburn | 27–23 | 16–17 | -3.5 | +1 | +4.5 / 4.5 | Play Play: Baylor +7.5 Risk 1.1u · win 1u | WIN 1.00u |
| Clemson at LSU | 23–31 | 10–51 | +8.5 | +41 | +32.5 / 32.5 | Lean Lean: Clemson +10 Risk 0.55u · win 0.5u | LOSS -0.55u |
| UCLA at California | 24–23 | 45–24 | -0.5 | -21 | -20.5 / 20.5 | Pass No position Risk 0u · win 0u | Excluded — |
| Ole Miss vs Louisville | 29–24 | 41–38 | -5 | -3 | +2 / 2 | Lean Lean: Louisville +6.5 Risk 0.55u · win 0.5u | WIN 0.50u |
| Wisconsin vs Notre Dame | 17–34 | 13–41 | +16.5 | +28 | +11.5 / 11.5 | Lean Lean: Wisconsin +20.5 Risk 0.55u · win 0.5u | LOSS -0.55u |
| SMU at Florida State | 26–27 | 27–24 | +1 | -3 | -4 / 4 | Pass No position Risk 0u · win 0u | Excluded — |
Lean: +0.50 / −0.55 units; Large Lean: +0.75 / −0.825; Play: +1.00 / −1.10. Push: zero. Grade the selected team’s score margin plus its original spread. Louisville is the designated home side for signed arithmetic at a neutral venue.
Closing lines: not available for this review. No verified historical capture adequately identifies the book, line and timing. Current odds and later article quotations are not substitutes. Every wager is graded at the frozen decision line.
Process review
The broad favorite direction was right for Miami, LSU and Notre Dame, but their separation was underestimated. Baylor and Louisville covered; late-game events and imperfect execution still challenge their reasoning. Passes do not erase the large UCLA–California miss.
Grade anchors range from C −2.5 to A+ +10; rank tiers add 0 to 2.5. Home-minus-away differences are added to quarterback (cap ±2), skill (±1.5), trenches/defense (±2), staff (±1.5), integration (±2), availability (±1), and venue. Campus home field stays +2.5; neutral sites stay zero. Every game below links its full component ledger and original dossier sources.
The caps, grade distances and rank bonuses were editorial choices; the repository contains no calibration supporting their magnitudes. Grade and rank can reward the same roster, then units, staff and continuity can reward it again. Tech’s +3.5 roster, +1 skill, +1.5 trenches, +1 staff and +1.5 continuity illustrate the overlap; no rank bonus applied there. Notre Dame’s stacked advantages still understated its margin, so removing points is not automatically an improvement.
FSU’s quarterback dossier contains staff prose and a veteran label, not a passing evaluation. Baylor repeats similar text across unit fields. Low-confidence publication-ready dossiers do not justify authoritative point estimates. All eight availability adjustments and explicit veto arrays were zero/empty; unresolved availability prose alone did not trigger a veto.
Projected scores were chosen to match the fair margin within half a point, not independently forecast from possessions or scoring efficiency. They cannot serve as independent support for the line.
The weaker dossier confidence selects half-widths of 4, 4.5, 5, 5.5, 6 or 6.5 points, with 0.5 additions for documented quarterback uncertainty or extreme integration. These are editorial sensitivity ranges, not calibrated intervals.
The toss-up trigger is range low ≤ 0, range high ≥ 0, and absolute midpoint ≤ 1.5. It applies to FSU and California. FSU’s four-point direction is vetoed; California independently fails the 1.5-point minimum. An outright toss-up is not automatically an ATS toss-up.
Execution order: integrity/toss-up/minimum-difference pass; then market-inside-range or difference below 3 caps at Lean; below 5 is Large Lean; otherwise Play. The range cap limited Tech, Clemson, Louisville and Wisconsin. This is faithful implementation of weakly justified methodology, not an arithmetic defect. Model direction, matchup input reliability and overall maturity remain separate.
No replacement slate or v0.2 activation. The prior probability proposal remains research-only; this pass prioritizes the point bridge.
Earlier veto audit and research proposal →Week 1: Research prepared → official forecasts frozen → publication code merged (PR #3) → settled. Historical hosting deployment has not been independently verified in this review. This update awaits human PR approval and publication.
Week 2: named September 9 research handoff not available in the searched files. Its reported 23:31:53Z freeze time is a user-provided lead, not a verified import timestamp. Official freeze and publication are not established. No editorial calls, market receipts or availability notes were reconstructed.
A ChatGPT research automation is not evidence of a repository write. Missing an official slate is acceptable while the method is reviewed.
2026-09-03 · final · regulation
Georgia Tech produced 51 rushing yards and no offensive touchdown. Its 13 points were two field goals and a kickoff-return touchdown with the extra point. Colorado allowed 288 yards; its own offense gained 290. The return score must not be credited to Tech’s offensive execution.
The stored Tech dossier already warned about both new coordinators, restructured line roles and Mendoza’s 102-snap sample. Those concerns received less weight than Colorado’s transfer count; uncertainty was treated as a directional disadvantage.
Colorado’s rebuilt defense held together better than projected. Lewis did not need an explosive passing game: he threw for 116 yards. This was not the specific high-output quarterback failure scenario the forecast emphasized.
Mendoza’s 17-of-23 passing for 237 yards is counterevidence to a blanket quarterback-failure explanation. Assignment quality, blocking responsibility and pressure rates remain research_pending without charting.
The blocked final field goal decided the outright winner. A made field goal would still leave Tech short of covering −6.5. Tech also blocked a Colorado kick. Neither final-play narrative explains the original +11.5 fair margin.
research_pending: no verified unexpected absence is established by this review; lack of an absence report is not evidence of full health.
Compare defensive assignments and rushing disruption in Colorado’s next game; inspect Tech against Tennessee on September 12, separating run design, blocking and penalties.
Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field, Atlanta, Georgia. Official season, local game date, teams and venue reconcile with the frozen scheduled event; actual kickoff delays do not alter the receipt.
Retrieved Sep 12, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC. Recap prose can differ from detailed statistics; the linked game records govern settlement.
Frozen forecast, component contributions, range, original position and receiptOriginal forecast SHA-256: c822a3b6946ad5be521e50f6caf5ae30bd2ff4713d5271a33a82f7c17424582b
Market reveal: 2026-w01-colorado-at-georgia-tech-reveal-01 · Sep 3, 2026, 6:16 PM UTC
2026-09-04 · final · regulation
Miami won 45–6. Mensah threw five touchdowns and Toney gained 234 receiving yards; Stanford scored no touchdown despite 214 passing yards from Warren.
The frozen dossier already identified modest Stanford line/skill talent and Miami’s high-end quarterback and receivers. A Week 0 win over Hawaii was not evidence of parity against that offense.
Miami’s rebuilt line did not prevent immediate passing production. The size of the separation exceeded the forecast’s illustrated 31–20 score.
Stanford committed no turnover and won the turnover battle. That weakens a turnover-luck explanation for the defeat, but Miami’s protection against a stronger front remains untested.
The winning team and broad talent direction were right; the compressed margin and Stanford scoring expectation were not. A Play label did not make the underlying evidence strong.
research_pending: no verified unexpected absence is established by this review; lack of an absence report is not evidence of full health.
Watch Stanford at Duke on September 19 and recheck Miami’s pass protection against stronger pressure. Separate Warren’s experience from sustained scoring efficiency.
Stanford Stadium, Stanford, California. Official season, local game date, teams and venue reconcile with the frozen scheduled event; actual kickoff delays do not alter the receipt.
Retrieved Sep 12, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC. Recap prose can differ from detailed statistics; the linked game records govern settlement.
Frozen forecast, component contributions, range, original position and receiptOriginal forecast SHA-256: b2c057a6a2747bdfb2aaead0e4c5b882a2d5c95212ddf795eb8eb656b55b3f48
Market reveal: 2026-w01-miami-at-stanford-reveal-01 · Sep 3, 2026, 6:16 PM UTC
2026-09-05 · final · regulation
Baylor covered +7.5 in a 17–16 loss. Lagway lost a fumble and threw an early interception; Baylor’s late touchdown and failed two-point attempt made the final close.
Lagway turnover risk and Brown’s fit with Golesh were explicit frozen failure conditions. Equal quarterback points obscured different kinds of risk; Baylor’s continuity advantage was not demonstrated merely by covering.
Auburn’s defense delivered critical stops despite extensive turnover. Brown also threw two first-half interceptions, so neither new offense established clean execution.
The final conversion determined the winner; Baylor needed a late touchdown to move inside the decision spread. Blocking quality and turnover repeatability need more evidence.
The neutral-site convention was correct. Special teams and empty possessions mattered: Auburn missed a field goal and Baylor failed a fourth-down chance inside the Auburn 20.
research_pending: no verified unexpected absence is established by this review; lack of an absence report is not evidence of full health.
Review stalled drives and quarterback decisions for both teams, then compare execution in their next games rather than upgrading the winning ATS thesis wholesale.
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia. Official season, local game date, teams and venue reconcile with the frozen scheduled event; actual kickoff delays do not alter the receipt.
Retrieved Sep 12, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC. Recap prose can differ from detailed statistics; the linked game records govern settlement.
Frozen forecast, component contributions, range, original position and receiptOriginal forecast SHA-256: e02467983e0ccfdd45cb5da1b9b04012482e7c29cfa99ad7ac24b26bf2b71c37
Market reveal: 2026-w01-baylor-vs-auburn-reveal-01 · Sep 3, 2026, 6:16 PM UTC
2026-09-05 · final · regulation
LSU won 51–10 with 644 offensive yards. Leavitt and Jones each rushed for 113 yards. A pick-six contributed seven LSU points, but long offensive scoring drives made this more than a turnover story.
Clemson’s stored risks included a tiny quarterback sample, run-game/line doubts and departed defenders. The bridge assigned zero net trench/defense points while deducting one point for LSU integration.
LSU’s new regime and reconstructed roster executed immediately. Clemson’s touchdown arrived late, after LSU had led 51–3.
One opponent cannot establish LSU’s ceiling or isolate coaching from personnel. A lightning delay changed kickoff timing; no numerical performance effect is assigned to it.
The favorite direction was right but +8.5 understated the margin by 32.5. Retaining a 2.5-point home-field assumption does not require preserving weak integration logic.
research_pending: no verified unexpected absence is established by this review; lack of an absence report is not evidence of full health.
Test LSU against stronger opposition and review Clemson protection and defensive assignments. Replace transfer-count penalties with evidence about shared roles and system familiarity.
Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Official season, local game date, teams and venue reconcile with the frozen scheduled event; actual kickoff delays do not alter the receipt.
Retrieved Sep 12, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC. Recap prose can differ from detailed statistics; the linked game records govern settlement.
Frozen forecast, component contributions, range, original position and receiptOriginal forecast SHA-256: d3682d9703623044f40d0a8f9ddc4bde7f273b5558ebdebcc1fcdeaedb059021
Market reveal: 2026-w01-clemson-at-lsu-reveal-01 · Sep 3, 2026, 6:16 PM UTC
2026-09-05 · final · regulation
UCLA won 45–24 after the game was tied at 24 in the third quarter. Sagapolutele passed for 271 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions; California was not offensively absent throughout.
The UCLA dossier noted transfers with JMU ties to the incoming staff. Counting transfers alone can miss existing system familiarity. Both teams’ trench evidence was incomplete.
The late separation was much larger than the near-even fair margin. Comparable roster turnover did not yield comparable results.
Cal’s comeback and Mohammed’s 120 rushing yards limit claims of comprehensive UCLA defensive improvement. The final margin alone cannot establish a quarterback gap.
The pass limits wager exposure, not forecasting accountability: the fair-margin error is still 20.5 points. Do not retrofit an official UCLA position.
research_pending: no verified unexpected absence is established by this review; lack of an absence report is not evidence of full health.
Check California at Syracuse on September 12 and chart UCLA’s defensive pressure and late-game execution against another opponent.
California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, California. Official season, local game date, teams and venue reconcile with the frozen scheduled event; actual kickoff delays do not alter the receipt.
Retrieved Sep 12, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC. Recap prose can differ from detailed statistics; the linked game records govern settlement.
Frozen forecast, component contributions, range, original position and receiptOriginal forecast SHA-256: ac000d3314e4f1f3e2db8365c06f647ad7d6aefcbb63afdaee9c2bb706aee0a5
Market reveal: 2026-w01-ucla-at-california-reveal-01 · Sep 3, 2026, 6:16 PM UTC
2026-09-06 · final · regulation
Louisville covered +6.5 in a 41–38 loss. Chambliss threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns; Louisville rallied from 14 down in the fourth quarter before the winning field goal.
Brohm continuity and Ole Miss quarterback quality were both explicit drivers. Louisville’s line reshuffle was known, but the dossier supplied little direct defensive-unit evidence.
Both offenses exceeded the illustrative 29–24 score. Ole Miss generated repeated explosive passes; Louisville’s response kept the margin close.
A two-point fair-margin error does not validate the projected scoring environment. A bad punt snap and a roughing-the-kicker penalty helped Ole Miss possessions; those events are not proof of roster superiority.
The bookkeeping home side is Louisville at neutral Nissan Stadium, even though the market source used Ole Miss as home. The normalized spread and grading remain Louisville +6.5.
research_pending: no verified unexpected absence is established by this review; lack of an absence report is not evidence of full health.
Compare explosive-pass concessions and sustained drives against subsequent opponents. Evaluate the quarterback and line hypotheses separately from the ATS win.
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee. Scores normalized to the frozen home-side convention; local game date, including delayed starts. Louisville is the bookkeeping home side at neutral Nissan Stadium.
Retrieved Sep 12, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC. Recap prose can differ from detailed statistics; the linked game records govern settlement.
Frozen forecast, component contributions, range, original position and receiptOriginal forecast SHA-256: bab50a0d087c08b5d158f4574fdd10a923595824ff0f325faa015ae9750fe31d
Market reveal: 2026-w01-louisville-vs-ole-miss-reveal-01 · Sep 3, 2026, 6:16 PM UTC
2026-09-06 · final · regulation
Notre Dame won 41–13, outscoring Wisconsin 28–3 after halftime and holding it to 1.4 yards per rush in the second half. Carr passed for 239 yards; Williams ran for 90 and two touchdowns.
The forecast already favored Notre Dame’s line, secondary, quarterback and returning core. Wisconsin’s consistency and integration questions were in the dossier, but a four-point midpoint difference still produced a Lean.
The replacement running backs did not prevent separation. Wisconsin stayed within three at halftime before the game moved away.
An effective second half does not measure the independent value of continuity. Opponent strength and adjustments cannot be separated from these aggregates alone.
The talent direction was right, the fair margin was 11.5 points too small, and Wisconsin +20.5 lost. The neutral Lambeau site receives no venue recalibration.
research_pending: no verified unexpected absence is established by this review; lack of an absence report is not evidence of full health.
Compare Wisconsin’s offense against a different defensive front and Notre Dame’s replacement backfield across subsequent games.
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin. Official season, local game date, teams and venue reconcile with the frozen scheduled event; actual kickoff delays do not alter the receipt.
Retrieved Sep 12, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC. Recap prose can differ from detailed statistics; the linked game records govern settlement.
Frozen forecast, component contributions, range, original position and receiptOriginal forecast SHA-256: 4b2fec8d4609c4e67ec7c4e1a3d037526d2fbae11233be09095af9537be598f3
Market reveal: 2026-w01-wisconsin-vs-notre-dame-reveal-01 · Sep 3, 2026, 6:16 PM UTC
2026-09-07 · final · regulation
FSU lost 27–24. Daniels completed 12 of 23 for 125 yards; FSU converted 2 of 15 third downs and conceded three sacks. Jennings passed for 430 yards. This supports concern about passing reliability, not a claim that Daniels alone caused the loss.
The stored Week 0 note warned about permissive pass defense; the dossier called Daniels a veteran but supplied no passing-quality evidence. Staff prose occupied its quarterback field. Continuity points were not a substitute for that missing evaluation.
FSU’s ground game and takeaways kept the game close. Kromah rushed for 116 yards; Daniels contributed 71 on 16 carries. Four takeaways included a muffed punt that provided a short touchdown field.
Singleton’s 39-yard touchdown on third-and-eight is real counterevidence to an absolute inability to pass. His catch began short, so receiver contribution matters. Three sacks do not measure pressure rate or apportion protection versus quarterback responsibility. Drops, separation and turnover-worthy-play rates are not_available.
Late tied-game possessions exposed the concern: after an interception, FSU went incomplete, incomplete, sack and punt. The final 21-second desperation possession is a different situation. Daniels’s last-play 34-yard rush/lateral sequence also complicates interpretation of his rushing total. The official pass contributes no wager or personal push.
research_pending: no verified unexpected absence is established by this review; lack of an absence report is not evidence of full health.
At Alabama on September 19, chart obvious passing downs, protection, target depth, receiver availability and game state separately. Conditions are defined now, retrospectively relative to Week 1.
Bobby Bowden Field at Doak S. Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida. Official season, local game date, teams and venue reconcile with the frozen scheduled event; actual kickoff delays do not alter the receipt.
Retrieved Sep 12, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC. Recap prose can differ from detailed statistics; the linked game records govern settlement.
Original forecast SHA-256: 15ce581cb4ccf1af5f6a98e2921349ce9485b6658ede14349de434845f52bcca
Market reveal: 2026-w01-smu-at-florida-state-reveal-01 · Sep 3, 2026, 6:16 PM UTC