Prospective Baseline Comparison v0.1 · manual research pilot

Carry both methods forward.

Does the fuller football assessment consistently improve a roster-only forecast?

Week 1 favored the full bridge slightly, while the captured market did better. Neither model is validated. This four-slate pilot keeps both methods, the original point rules, and the +2.5 campus home-field assumption.

View assembled Oct 10, 2026, 4:19 AM UTC · research forecasts, not betting recommendations · official Week 1 results and retrospective diagnostics remain separate.

First freeze is still a manual step

1Selected games · current inventory

0Frozen packets

0In-window market captures

0Verified prospective outcomes

Evidence cutoff: Sep 16, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC. Freeze all packets and commit receipts by Sep 16, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC. Market target Sep 16, 2026, 7:15 PM UTC, allowed Sep 16, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC–Sep 16, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC.

No packet recorded: the manual freeze remains incomplete; if the deadline passed it cannot be reconstructed. Current gaps: confirm personnel and current evidence, complete source-backed editorial assignments or explicit abstentions, and run the freeze/commit/receipt steps. A Wednesday ChatGPT task does not execute these commands.

Three forecasts, one cutoff

Home field only: campus +2.5, neutral 0. Roster plus home field: the original grade-anchor differential plus venue. Full v0.1: that same roster input plus the original rank tier and six editorial components. All use the same cutoff and compatible underlying inputs.

The arithmetic and caps reproduce unchanged. Editorial component magnitudes are not uniquely determined by a rubric. Each assignment needs an author, sources and rationale. Unknown evidence makes the full method unavailable; it does not silently become zero. Availability retains the original explicit zero rule when no material absence is confirmed.

No new quarterback/line bonus, revised weighting, illustrative score, stake or probability is produced.

Current slate: forecasts and coverage

Positive signed home margin favors the designated home team: +4 means home by 4, equivalent to a model fair line of home −4. It is not a sportsbook +4 spread. Neutral “home” is bookkeeping only. A dash is missing or pending, never zero.

2026-pbc-01 · 4 inventoried games · 1 selected · 0 frozen
Away / home	Scheduled kickoff	Research status	Home field	Roster + home	Full v0.1	Market benchmark	Provenance
Colorado / Northwestern	Sep 19, 2026, 11:30 PM UTC	Missed freeze	—	—	—	Missing capture	No frozen forecast
Florida State / Alabama	Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC	Excluded	—	—	—	Not in cohort	No frozen forecast
mercer / Georgia Tech	Sep 19, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC	Excluded	—	—	—	Not in cohort	No frozen forecast
SMU / Louisville	Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC	Excluded	—	—	—	Not in cohort	No frozen forecast

Colorado / Northwestern: selected by registered ordering

Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium, Evanston, Illinois · home. Retained even if a method or market capture is unavailable.

No prospective margin has been generated for this game.

Working input readiness · not a frozen forecast

Dated readiness pass: September 12, 2026, 03:59:13 UTC. Full v0.1 remains unavailable. Values below are component judgments, not sportsbook spreads.

Readiness search incidentally displayed a historical Colorado–Georgia Tech spread in an Axios excerpt. No Colorado–Northwestern quote retrieved. Conservative disclosure treats this working packet as market_exposed, also acknowledging preseason prediction material encountered during personnel research. Earlier blind preparation remains dated history; no market is an input.

quarterback: 0.5 signed home-margin component points. Working home-side +0.5 within original ±2 half-point rubric. Editorial inference: Chiles has materially more college starting experience than Lewis and demonstrated passing production in the Northwestern opener. Counterevidence: different systems/opponents, Chiles inconsistency and Lewis’s successful late GT drive. This small experience/reliability lean is judgment, not a measured run-failure advantage or calibrated conversion; no unique magnitude is implied.

skill Positions: unknown. Evidence and rubric gaps: named running backs and Wilde are documented, but current Colorado receiving/TE roles and comparative available depth are not sufficiently established to choose a net edge. Original ±1.5 half-point editorial discretion does not require measured efficiency, but available facts do not support a responsible balanced-zero or directional judgment here. Remains null.

trenches And Defense: unknown. Evidence and rubric gaps: Northwestern projected LT Seagren, LG Oratokhai, C Carsello, RG Birsa and RT McGuire are now sourced, but the right side was contested and September 19 roles are unconfirmed. Colorado rotation, Gooden, Anene and Lester add evidence; coverage costs and current protection units remain incomplete. Original ±2 permits qualitative judgment without pressure statistics; an aggregate net edge is still not supported. Remains null.

staff And Scheme: 0 signed home-margin component points. Supported neutral editorial judgment within original ±1.5 cap. Both head coaches remain; both offenses introduce new coordinators (Kelly and Marion). Kelly’s experience and familiar Drevno relationship are offset by a new QB/line context; Colorado has new Marve defense but opener execution provides counterevidence to an automatic coaching penalty. No separate net staff edge is assigned after treating turnover in continuity. Zero records this balanced inference, not missing information.

continuity And Integration: 0.5 signed home-margin component points. Working home-side +0.5 within original ±2 half-point rubric. Colorado’s extensive defensive turnover and two new coordinators impose a broader integration burden than Northwestern’s retained defensive leadership. Counterevidence: Northwestern also changes QB/OC and loses important linemen; the projected left-side core and Colorado’s successful opener limit the lean. Magnitude remains an authored small judgment, not a turnover-count mapping. Do not repeat the same penalty in staff or trenches.

known Availability: 0 signed home-margin component points. Working value under the original explicit zero-absent-confirmed-material-absence rule (±1 cap). No confirmed material September 19 absence was established in reviewed sources. This is not an all-healthy declaration: final depth charts and availability require a September 16 refresh.

Refresh before September 16, 18:00 UTC. Earlier dated evidence remains in the linked history.

Tennessee at Georgia Tech: run execution and protection

Colorado at Northwestern: can cohesion survive a different offense?

Florida State / Alabama: alabama: Unit evidence incomplete or partial

Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama · home. Exclusion remains visible; no substitute was selected for a difficult assignment.

No prospective margin has been generated for this game.

Daniels: passing and rushing are different evidence

FSU at Alabama: passing when the run stalls

mercer / Georgia Tech: Non-FBS opponent; mercer: No canonical dossier

Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field, Atlanta, Georgia · home. Exclusion remains visible; no substitute was selected for a difficult assignment.

No prospective margin has been generated for this game.

Tennessee at Georgia Tech: run execution and protection

Colorado at Northwestern: can cohesion survive a different offense?

SMU / Louisville: Kickoff/venue not_available; smu: Unit evidence incomplete or partial

Venue not_available · home. Exclusion remains visible; no substitute was selected for a difficult assignment.

No prospective margin has been generated for this game.

Daniels: passing and rushing are different evidence

Matched comparisons: no early winner

Model-versus-model and model-versus-market use separate matched samples. Market-exposed and uncertain-provenance forecasts never silently enter the blind cohort. Missing outcomes, methods and captures remain counted.

market blind · 0 frozen / 0 settled

Missing outcomes 0; unavailable full methods 0; missing captures 0. No prospective error result yet.

Metrics on each comparison’s identical matched games; columns show candidate / reference
Comparison	MAE	RMSE	Mean signed	Median absolute	Help / hurt / tie
Full v0.1 / Roster + home field	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Home field only / Roster + home field	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Home field only / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Roster + home field / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Full v0.1 / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0

Full-method contributors

No settled matched games.

2026-pbc-01 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

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  "metrics": {
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      "meanSigned": null,
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    }
  }
}

2026-pbc-02 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

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    },
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      "n": 0,
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    },
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    }
  }
}

2026-pbc-03 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

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    },
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  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
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    "wins": 0,
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  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
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      "reference": "market",
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    },
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      "candidate": "roster",
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  "metrics": {
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    }
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}

2026-pbc-04 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

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  "modelVsMarket": [
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  ],
  "metrics": {
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      "n": 0,
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    },
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      "n": 0,
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    },
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      "n": 0,
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    },
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    }
  }
}

market exposed · 0 frozen / 0 settled

Missing outcomes 0; unavailable full methods 0; missing captures 0. No prospective error result yet.

Metrics on each comparison’s identical matched games; columns show candidate / reference
Comparison	MAE	RMSE	Mean signed	Median absolute	Help / hurt / tie
Full v0.1 / Roster + home field	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Home field only / Roster + home field	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Home field only / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Roster + home field / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Full v0.1 / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0

Full-method contributors

No settled matched games.

2026-pbc-01 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

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    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

2026-pbc-02 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

{
  "group": "market_exposed",
  "slateId": "2026-pbc-02",
  "nFrozen": 0,
  "nSettled": 0,
  "missingOutcomes": 0,
  "missingFull": 0,
  "missingCaptures": 0,
  "rows": [],
  "modelVsModel": {
    "candidate": "full",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

2026-pbc-03 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

{
  "group": "market_exposed",
  "slateId": "2026-pbc-03",
  "nFrozen": 0,
  "nSettled": 0,
  "missingOutcomes": 0,
  "missingFull": 0,
  "missingCaptures": 0,
  "rows": [],
  "modelVsModel": {
    "candidate": "full",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

2026-pbc-04 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

{
  "group": "market_exposed",
  "slateId": "2026-pbc-04",
  "nFrozen": 0,
  "nSettled": 0,
  "missingOutcomes": 0,
  "missingFull": 0,
  "missingCaptures": 0,
  "rows": [],
  "modelVsModel": {
    "candidate": "full",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

provenance unknown · 0 frozen / 0 settled

Missing outcomes 0; unavailable full methods 0; missing captures 0. No prospective error result yet.

Metrics on each comparison’s identical matched games; columns show candidate / reference
Comparison	MAE	RMSE	Mean signed	Median absolute	Help / hurt / tie
Full v0.1 / Roster + home field	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Home field only / Roster + home field	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Home field only / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Roster + home field / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Full v0.1 / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0

Full-method contributors

No settled matched games.

2026-pbc-01 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

{
  "group": "provenance_unknown",
  "slateId": "2026-pbc-01",
  "nFrozen": 0,
  "nSettled": 0,
  "missingOutcomes": 0,
  "missingFull": 0,
  "missingCaptures": 0,
  "rows": [],
  "modelVsModel": {
    "candidate": "full",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

2026-pbc-02 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

{
  "group": "provenance_unknown",
  "slateId": "2026-pbc-02",
  "nFrozen": 0,
  "nSettled": 0,
  "missingOutcomes": 0,
  "missingFull": 0,
  "missingCaptures": 0,
  "rows": [],
  "modelVsModel": {
    "candidate": "full",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

2026-pbc-03 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

{
  "group": "provenance_unknown",
  "slateId": "2026-pbc-03",
  "nFrozen": 0,
  "nSettled": 0,
  "missingOutcomes": 0,
  "missingFull": 0,
  "missingCaptures": 0,
  "rows": [],
  "modelVsModel": {
    "candidate": "full",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

2026-pbc-04 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

{
  "group": "provenance_unknown",
  "slateId": "2026-pbc-04",
  "nFrozen": 0,
  "nSettled": 0,
  "missingOutcomes": 0,
  "missingFull": 0,
  "missingCaptures": 0,
  "rows": [],
  "modelVsModel": {
    "candidate": "full",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

Disagreement review follows the freeze

The first two captured disagreements in matchup-ID order receive a structured review. It separates facts known at cutoff, later information and hypotheses about market pricing. A disagreement does not reveal bookmaker reasoning or justify rewriting a forecast.

Pending: no comparative market retrieval or disagreement review has occurred for this cohort.

Earlier questions: evidence preserved

Checked Sep 12, 2026, 1:48 AM UTC against their original commit and receipt hashes. Both games were upcoming; neither confirmation nor invalidation conditions can be evaluated yet.

FSU at Alabama: passing when the run stalls · upcoming

Official schedule/preview still lists the original future kickoff. No completed-game review is possible at this check.

Original mechanism conditions remain untested. No material new evidence beyond the already-recorded sources was found in this bounded check; no upgrade, downgrade or hypothesis rewrite.

After final status, append observations against original support/weakening conditions and separate mechanism from winner. Confirm availability before kickoff.

Original creation Sep 12, 2026, 1:11 AM UTC · cutoff Sep 12, 2026, 1:11 AM UTC · kickoff Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC

Original hash 8244cc8ecd6759bd5e28d8c3e80d65a34408a848e52955ad10a28533d2dc9d68

Schedule / preview verification

Original evidence and dated updates →

Tennessee at Georgia Tech: run execution and protection · upcoming

Official schedule/preview still lists the original future kickoff. No completed-game review is possible at this check.

Original mechanism conditions remain untested. No material new evidence beyond the already-recorded sources was found in this bounded check; no upgrade, downgrade or hypothesis rewrite.

After final status, append observations against original support/weakening conditions and separate mechanism from winner. Confirm availability before kickoff.

Original creation Sep 12, 2026, 1:11 AM UTC · cutoff Sep 12, 2026, 1:11 AM UTC · kickoff Sep 12, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC

Original hash b84a7f0551a5c604f6730305516b090bdca8f66544cfe64e86efe87897472134

Schedule / preview verification

Original evidence and dated updates →

Registered selection and manual runbook

All scheduled games involving Colorado, FSU, Georgia Tech or SMU are inventoried each slate. Both teams need canonical researched dossiers, original grade anchors, at least three researched unit assessments, staff/continuity text and resolving sources. This documentation screen is not proof of quality. Select the first three eligible matchup IDs; preserve all exclusions.

Four slates, September 17–21 through October 8–12. The initial review assesses consistent operation, evidence quality and patterns—not statistical validation or an early winner.

Schedule sources and next steps

Colorado official 2026 schedule · retrieved Sep 12, 2026, 1:47 AM UTC · published not_available. Next-slate game at Northwestern September 19. Use host schedule for explicit time zone and campus venue.

Northwestern official 2026 schedule · retrieved Sep 12, 2026, 1:47 AM UTC · published not_available. Colorado September 19 at 6:30 PM CDT = 23:30 UTC, Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium; designated campus home.

Florida State official 2026 schedule · retrieved Sep 12, 2026, 1:47 AM UTC · published not_available. September 12 bye; at Alabama September 19. Schedule checked at retrieval; no final status for this upcoming game.

FSU kickoff announcement · retrieved Sep 12, 2026, 1:47 AM UTC · published 2026-05-27. September 19 at Alabama 3:30 PM ET = 19:30 UTC; campus home is Alabama.

Georgia Tech official September schedule · retrieved Sep 12, 2026, 1:47 AM UTC · published 2026-05-27. Full September table: Mercer September 19 at noon ET = 16:00 UTC at Bobby Dodd. Direct schedule route failed; official table supplies inventory.

SMU official 2026 schedule · retrieved Sep 12, 2026, 1:47 AM UTC · published not_available. At Louisville September 19 2:30 PM CT = 19:30 UTC. Campus venue needs host reconfirmation before any later protocol could include this excluded game.

Audit schedules and select; prepare dated evidence.
During the registered window, generate all packets, commit, create receipts, and commit receipts.
Verify market readiness; retrieve the named benchmark inside its window.
Append verified outcomes and evidence updates; report matched comparisons.
Open a PR for human publication review. No automatic Wednesday execution.

Registered protocol Commands and runbook Retrospective Week 1 diagnostic Original official Forecast Book

Opening the research record…

Matched comparisons: no early winner

market blind · 0 frozen / 0 settled

Missing outcomes 0; unavailable full methods 0; missing captures 0. No prospective error result yet.

Metrics on each comparison’s identical matched games; columns show candidate / reference
Comparison	MAE	RMSE	Mean signed	Median absolute	Help / hurt / tie
Full v0.1 / Roster + home field	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Home field only / Roster + home field	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Home field only / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Roster + home field / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Full v0.1 / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0

Full-method contributors

No settled matched games.

2026-pbc-01 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

{
  "group": "market_blind",
  "slateId": "2026-pbc-01",
  "nFrozen": 0,
  "nSettled": 0,
  "missingOutcomes": 0,
  "missingFull": 0,
  "missingCaptures": 0,
  "rows": [],
  "modelVsModel": {
    "candidate": "full",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

2026-pbc-02 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

{
  "group": "market_blind",
  "slateId": "2026-pbc-02",
  "nFrozen": 0,
  "nSettled": 0,
  "missingOutcomes": 0,
  "missingFull": 0,
  "missingCaptures": 0,
  "rows": [],
  "modelVsModel": {
    "candidate": "full",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

2026-pbc-03 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

{
  "group": "market_blind",
  "slateId": "2026-pbc-03",
  "nFrozen": 0,
  "nSettled": 0,
  "missingOutcomes": 0,
  "missingFull": 0,
  "missingCaptures": 0,
  "rows": [],
  "modelVsModel": {
    "candidate": "full",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

2026-pbc-04 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

{
  "group": "market_blind",
  "slateId": "2026-pbc-04",
  "nFrozen": 0,
  "nSettled": 0,
  "missingOutcomes": 0,
  "missingFull": 0,
  "missingCaptures": 0,
  "rows": [],
  "modelVsModel": {
    "candidate": "full",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

market exposed · 0 frozen / 0 settled

Missing outcomes 0; unavailable full methods 0; missing captures 0. No prospective error result yet.

Metrics on each comparison’s identical matched games; columns show candidate / reference
Comparison	MAE	RMSE	Mean signed	Median absolute	Help / hurt / tie
Full v0.1 / Roster + home field	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Home field only / Roster + home field	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Home field only / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Roster + home field / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Full v0.1 / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0

Full-method contributors

No settled matched games.

2026-pbc-01 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

{
  "group": "market_exposed",
  "slateId": "2026-pbc-01",
  "nFrozen": 0,
  "nSettled": 0,
  "missingOutcomes": 0,
  "missingFull": 0,
  "missingCaptures": 0,
  "rows": [],
  "modelVsModel": {
    "candidate": "full",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

2026-pbc-02 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

{
  "group": "market_exposed",
  "slateId": "2026-pbc-02",
  "nFrozen": 0,
  "nSettled": 0,
  "missingOutcomes": 0,
  "missingFull": 0,
  "missingCaptures": 0,
  "rows": [],
  "modelVsModel": {
    "candidate": "full",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

2026-pbc-03 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

{
  "group": "market_exposed",
  "slateId": "2026-pbc-03",
  "nFrozen": 0,
  "nSettled": 0,
  "missingOutcomes": 0,
  "missingFull": 0,
  "missingCaptures": 0,
  "rows": [],
  "modelVsModel": {
    "candidate": "full",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

2026-pbc-04 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

{
  "group": "market_exposed",
  "slateId": "2026-pbc-04",
  "nFrozen": 0,
  "nSettled": 0,
  "missingOutcomes": 0,
  "missingFull": 0,
  "missingCaptures": 0,
  "rows": [],
  "modelVsModel": {
    "candidate": "full",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "homeVsRoster": {
    "candidate": "homeField",
    "reference": "roster",
    "n": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "candidateMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "referenceMetrics": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "ties": 0,
    "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
    "contributors": []
  },
  "modelVsMarket": [
    {
      "candidate": "homeField",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "roster",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    },
    {
      "candidate": "full",
      "reference": "market",
      "n": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "candidateMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "referenceMetrics": {
        "n": 0,
        "mae": null,
        "rmse": null,
        "meanSigned": null,
        "medianAbsolute": null
      },
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "ties": 0,
      "totalAbsoluteErrorReduction": 0,
      "contributors": []
    }
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "homeField": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "roster": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "full": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    },
    "market": {
      "n": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "meanSigned": null,
      "medianAbsolute": null
    }
  }
}

provenance unknown · 0 frozen / 0 settled

Missing outcomes 0; unavailable full methods 0; missing captures 0. No prospective error result yet.

Metrics on each comparison’s identical matched games; columns show candidate / reference
Comparison	MAE	RMSE	Mean signed	Median absolute	Help / hurt / tie
Full v0.1 / Roster + home field	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Home field only / Roster + home field	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Home field only / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Roster + home field / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0
Full v0.1 / Captured DraftKings	— / —	— / —	— / —	— / —	0 / 0 / 0

Full-method contributors

No settled matched games.

2026-pbc-01 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

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2026-pbc-02 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

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2026-pbc-03 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

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  "slateId": "2026-pbc-03",
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2026-pbc-04 · 0 frozen · full/roster matched n = 0

Full / roster MAE: — / —. Helped/hurt/tied: 0/0/0.

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