Forecast Book
Settled

Sep 5, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

Baylor vs Auburn

Projected scoreBaylor 27Auburn 23
Blind fair lineBaylor -3.5Range -10 to +3 home margin
Market at revealAuburn -7.5Sep 3, 2026, 6:16 PM UTC
Model directionBaylor +7.511-point fair-line midpoint difference; this is directional context, not a calibrated cover probability or verified betting edge.
Frozen official positionPlay: Baylor +7.51.1 to win 1 · confidence high
Why v0.1 made this call

No v0.1 veto or fair-range cap restricted the call.

Exact-spread settlement

This half-point spread cannot push under standard full-game settlement.

v0.2 probability and classification work is retrospective research, excluded from official performance records and not an active recommendation.

Line-blind case

What drove the number

These assessments were committed before the market retrieval shown above. Roster confidence: Low.

Roster baseline

Both researched, unranked programs carry B roster grades and receive no rank-tier points, leaving the baseline level.

Quarterback

DJ Lagway's elite physical ceiling and Byrum Brown's system fit offset one another in the frozen bridge; neither receives a point adjustment.

Skill positions

Baylor's experienced offensive line and added backs and receivers earn a small advantage over Auburn's less settled supporting cast.

Trenches & defense

Auburn returns only one offensive and two defensive starters after major exits, while Baylor retains more offensive-line experience.

Staff & scheme

Baylor retains Jake Spavital and Dave Aranda's defensive teaching base; Auburn begins Alex Golesh's first season with a new offensive structure.

Continuity & integration

Both teams used the portal heavily, but Auburn's near-total role turnover creates the larger first-game integration penalty.

Key drivers

  • Equal B-grade roster baselines
  • Baylor's offensive-line experience
  • Auburn's near-total returning-role turnover
  • Zero venue credit at the neutral site

Failure conditions

  • Auburn's new roster integrates faster than the continuity assessment allows
  • Byrum Brown's fit in Alex Golesh's offense creates an immediate quarterback edge
  • DJ Lagway's turnover risk overwhelms Baylor's continuity advantages
Availability boundary

No confirmed game-specific absence is recorded in the repository evidence.

Auburn's final roles after near-total turnover and Baylor's portal-defense deployment remain unresolved until live snaps.

Blind receipt

Committed before reveal.

Forecast created Sep 3, 2026, 6:10 PM UTC. Market retrieved Sep 3, 2026, 6:16 PM UTC.

Methodology
forecast-book-v0.1
Anchor commit
341ffda
Market source
DraftKings via ESPN
SHA-256 blind payloade02467983e0ccfdd45cb5da1b9b04012482e7c29cfa99ad7ac24b26bf2b71c37
View timestamped market source context